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Expected Goals: Can They Predict Future Goals?

Expected goals have been introduced in football by Sam Green in 2012 and rapidly became a standard metric in football analytics. Many articles have shown how you can use expected goals to judge player or team quality over a season but not much on how to use them for predictions.


The objective of this article is to fill that gap and show why expected goals can be considered a good predictive statistic. Using Poisson regression we show that expected goals are a better predictor than actual goals.



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